Investing Education

As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories. 

According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained. 

While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss the strengthening performance of Australian small caps, why quality matters, and where opportunities are emerging. I shared a number of small-cap examples across different sectors to illustrate these points, including ZIP (ASX:ZIP), a buy-now-pay-later business growing strongly in the United States; Megaport (ASX:MP1), a key technology provider connecting data centres where a recent acquisition is yet to be fully recognised by the market; Codan (ASX:CDA), which manufactures gold detectors and continues to benefit from solid demand supported by elevated gold prices; and MA Financial Group (ASX:MAF), a private credit manager seeing strong inflows as investors seek more reliable income.

The key takeaway from this episode was the importance of being selective and backing quality businesses.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Podcast Channel, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to talk about high-frequency arbitrage, how these strategies work, and why they have become an increasingly attractive alternative for sophisticated investors. We discussed how arbitrage seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges. Importantly, we also explored how this type of strategy can complement a diversified portfolio by providing returns that are largely uncorrelated to equity markets.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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According to a survey by Finder and, separately, modelling from investment and annuities firm Challenger, Australians are being haunted. Not in their homes, mind you, but in their bank accounts. The ghost, however, isn’t inflation; it’s the distant and diminishing finish line for what’s considered ‘financial peace of mind.’ continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s summer series to talk about the growth of private credit, why it has expanded so quickly, and what investors should look for when assessing these opportunities. We also discussed how private credit can complement a diversified portfolio, providing an income stream that is uncorrelated to equity markets. 

You can catch the full episode here: Why private credit is booming. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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