Investing Education

Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.

Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.  

Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.

You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the growing debate around whether AI stocks are in a bubble by revisiting a strikingly familiar research note published during the DotCom era in 1999. At the time, investors were told there were “good reasons to pay through the nose” for leading technology stocks because their growth and disruptive potential made “this time different.” Drawing on my own experience working through the DotCom bubble, I reflect on how speculative excess can continue far longer than expected before eventually unwinding, often with devastating consequences for investors. While today’s artificial intelligence (AI) leaders may have strong fundamentals, history reminds us that every bubble comes with a compelling narrative that sounds convincing in the moment. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common. 

Consumer confidence is in a world of pain. 

In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.

The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.

When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.

The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence.  Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years. 

A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.

According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni

I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.

For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.

However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. continue…

by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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